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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still